Important Bayesian Lessons and the Santa Claus Question

In my investigation of Bayes Theorem, I have learned a great many things. Many of these lessons come from listening to the lectures and debates of Dr. Richard Carrier, whose lecture on Bayes Theorem is what got me to first realise the power of Bayes in the first place and how to apply the theorem in a real world situation.

So What is Bayes Theorem?

Bayes Theorem is a mathematical relationship between the probabilities of conditional events. Conditional events are different from independent events in that a conditional event’s chances of occurring are dependent on the chances of occurrence of the event it is conditional upon.

Bayes Theorem

Bayes Theorem

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