Belay That Photon Torpedo Order!!!

This post is about the application of Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem in target detection by a randomly maneouvering search platform. Most tutorials about Bayes Theorem on the internet deal with issues like cancer detection maths or picking coloured balls from a hat. I needed a little bit more realism in my quest to understand Bayes Theorem and so I devised the following scenario.

It has taken my small brain months, maybe even years to begin to comprehend Bayes Theorem so don’t be disheartened if you can’t understand this post right away. Keep at it, keep reading, and like me, one day, the truth about our beliefs and the way we form them will dawn on you!!

I have chosen to write this post as a work of fiction rather than a paper on the subject it really addresses. In a nutshell —> Just because your sensor has reported a target detection, it doesn’t mean that there is actually a target there. Continue reading